Sufficient CertaintyDeciding

Writing

On decision-making, the method, and what organisations get wrong when they try to manage "risk" instead of deciding.

The Decision Autopsy

A structured before-and-after review of a decision already made. Not a post-mortem. Not a lessons-learned exercise. A method for understanding what was assumed, what changed, and what the decision-maker would do differently.

Why Your Risk Register Doesn't Help You Decide

Enron had one. Boeing had one. The Australian banks had dozens. The apparatus was fully assembled and fully useless when it mattered most.

What Is Decision Coaching?

Decision coaching is not more analysis. It is a structured process that makes you work through your own reasoning until it holds up or falls apart.

How to Make a Difficult Business Decision

The $80,000 consultant report was designed to demonstrate due diligence, not to help you decide. Here is what actually works.

Vale Roger Estall

A tribute to Roger Estall, co-author of Deciding, who saved more lives in New Zealand than anyone else. He passed away on 21 June 2023.

Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths

On the Universal Decision-Making Method and why mastery of it distinguishes successful from unsuccessful decision-makers.

Conversations with Mark Siwik

A three-part conversation on risk management, decision-making, and five decades of advisory practice, hosted by Mark Siwik at SandRun Risk.

The IIA’s Three Lines Model is as badly flawed as its old one

A critique of the Institute of Internal Auditors’ updated model and why it still fails to address how organisations actually decide.

COSO ERM in a COVID-19 world

Why enterprise risk management frameworks did not and could not help organisations decide what to do about COVID-19. The pandemic proved the apparatus useless.

Should internal audit perform a risk assessment?

Roger Estall on why the real question is not who assesses risk, but whether the organisation actually makes good decisions and how it would know.

The ‘risk management’ millstone

How an informal label for diverse, conflicting concepts acquired the appearance of something of substance, and why it weighs organisations down.

Who are the Deciders?

Everyone who has some part in determining how an organisation takes advantage of its opportunities is a Decider. From the board room to the work face.

It all depends on Purpose

Every organisation possesses an underlying reason for existence. Every decision must connect to it or risk drifting into failure.

The role of monitoring

Monitoring means checking that what was assumed when the decision was made is what is occurring. Decisions are not fire and forget.

Disruption: anticipating the unexpected

Skilled decision-makers reduce organisational vulnerability, recognise opportunities emerging from disruption, and build monitoring into every decision.