Sufficient Certainty — Writing https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing Articles on decision-making, governance, and the Universal Decision-Making Method. By Grant Purdy and contributors. en The Decision Autopsy https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/decision-autopsy https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/decision-autopsy Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT A structured before-and-after review of a decision already made. Not a post-mortem. Not a lessons-learned exercise. A method for understanding what was assumed, what changed, and what the decision-maker would do differently. Grant Purdy Why Your Risk Register Doesn't Help You Decide https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/why-your-risk-register-doesnt-help-you-decide https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/why-your-risk-register-doesnt-help-you-decide Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Enron had one. Boeing had one. The Australian banks had dozens. The apparatus was fully assembled and fully useless when it mattered most. Grant Purdy What Is Decision Coaching? https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/what-is-decision-coaching https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/what-is-decision-coaching Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Decision coaching is not more analysis. It is a structured process that makes you work through your own reasoning until it holds up or falls apart. Joseph Purdy How to Make a Difficult Business Decision https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/how-to-make-a-difficult-business-decision https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/how-to-make-a-difficult-business-decision Sat, 30 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT The $80,000 consultant report was designed to demonstrate due diligence, not to help you decide. Here is what actually works. Grant Purdy Vale Roger Estall https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/vale-roger-estall https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/vale-roger-estall Fri, 23 Jun 2023 00:00:00 GMT A tribute to Roger Estall, co-author of Deciding, who saved more lives in New Zealand than anyone else. He passed away on 21 June 2023. Grant Purdy Making decisions unburdened by ‘risk management’ myths https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/unburdened-by-risk-management-myths https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/unburdened-by-risk-management-myths Fri, 25 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT On the Universal Decision-Making Method and why mastery of it distinguishes successful from unsuccessful decision-makers. Grant Purdy Conversations with Mark Siwik https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/conversations-with-mark-siwik https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/conversations-with-mark-siwik Fri, 25 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT A three-part conversation on risk management, decision-making, and five decades of advisory practice, hosted by Mark Siwik at SandRun Risk. Grant Purdy The IIA’s Three Lines Model is as badly flawed as its old one https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/iia-three-lines-model https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/iia-three-lines-model Mon, 27 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMT A critique of the Institute of Internal Auditors’ updated model and why it still fails to address how organisations actually decide. Grant Purdy COSO ERM in a COVID-19 world https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/coso-erm-covid19 https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/coso-erm-covid19 Sun, 10 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT Why enterprise risk management frameworks did not and could not help organisations decide what to do about COVID-19. The pandemic proved the apparatus useless. Grant Purdy Should internal audit perform a risk assessment? https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/should-ia-perform-risk-assessment https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/should-ia-perform-risk-assessment Sun, 10 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT Roger Estall on why the real question is not who assesses risk, but whether the organisation actually makes good decisions and how it would know. Roger Estall The ‘risk management’ millstone https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/risk-management-millstone https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/risk-management-millstone Sat, 28 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT How an informal label for diverse, conflicting concepts acquired the appearance of something of substance, and why it weighs organisations down. Grant Purdy Who are the Deciders? https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/deciders https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/deciders Wed, 25 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Everyone who has some part in determining how an organisation takes advantage of its opportunities is a Decider. From the board room to the work face. Grant Purdy It all depends on Purpose https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/purpose https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/purpose Sun, 01 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Every organisation possesses an underlying reason for existence. Every decision must connect to it or risk drifting into failure. Grant Purdy The role of monitoring https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/monitoring https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/monitoring Sun, 01 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Monitoring means checking that what was assumed when the decision was made is what is occurring. Decisions are not fire and forget. Grant Purdy Disruption: anticipating the unexpected https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/disruption https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/writing/disruption Sun, 01 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Skilled decision-makers reduce organisational vulnerability, recognise opportunities emerging from disruption, and build monitoring into every decision. Grant Purdy